The 8 best prop bets for the 2023 NFL Draft

Odds are that if you are reading this piece you are somewhat invested in the NFL draft.

I promise we’ll stop with the bad puns now.

But if you have made it this far it is likely that you have spent some time studying prospects, looking at mock drafts, thinking about potential landing spots, and other behavior that in another industry might have people wondering about your sanity. Such is the beauty of draft season.

So, why not try and make a little money?

Thanks to our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook, there are some NFL draft prop bets that you can play. The usual caveats apply: Please play responsibility, and maybe fade every recommendation that I make. I’m an F1 writer after all.

Also, these are the odds listed as of April 14, so things may have changed by the time you read this.

With that said, here are some plays that I like ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Draft Position

Anthony Richardson Over/Under Pick 4.5

This feels like a very easy under play, even with the under listed at -115. As the draft approaches the idea of Richardson coming off the board within the first four picks seems like a lock. His current spot according to NFL Mock Draft Database is at four to Indianapolis, and with the idea that the Arizona Cardinals could trade out of three to a team looking to come up for a QB, he could come off the board there.

There is also the idea that Richardson could go first overall

Christian Gonzalez Over/Under Pick 8.5

Over the winter, Christian Gonzalez from Oregon seemed a lock to be the first cornerback taken. But as the weather warmed up, that conversation has shifted a bit. Gonzalez has slid out of the top five in consensus mock drafts, and there is an idea that Devon Witherspoon could be the first cornerback drafted instead.

However, there are two viable landing spots for cornerbacks inside the first eight picks: Detroit at 6, and Atlanta at 8. Even with the recent Jeff Okudah trade, the Falcons could still address cornerback, and the Lions certainly have a need at that spot.

Then there are the Las Vegas Raiders. While quarterback is certainly an option for them, consensus mock drafts have Gonzalez as their pick at seven overall.

The under is listed at +110 right now, but it seems like the smart play.

Zay Flowers Over/Under Pick 22.5

Wide receiver is one of the position groups that is falling out of favor as the draft approaches. Jim Nagy, the Executive Director of the Senior Bowl, tweeting the following:

Another WR receiving WR1 buzz? Zay Flowers from Boston College. While this year’s draft crop at the position might skew towards slot receivers, such as Flowers and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, there are still a number of landing spots for both players inside the top 22 of the draft, including New England at 14 — the consensus landing spot for Flowers at the moment — Seattle at 20, the Los Angeles Chargers at 21, and the Baltimore Ravens at 22. The under here, listed at -155, feels like the right move.

Position Totals

Total defensive backs drafted in first round Over/Under 4.5

Listed at -400, the over here is a heavy favorite, with implied odds of 80%.

With good reason.

As we have discussed in recent days, cornerback alone might be the deepest position in the draft. Currently four cornerbacks are inside the first round of consensus mock drafts — Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, Joey Porter Jr., and Deonte Banks — with other such as Cam Smith, Emmanuel Forbes, and Kelee Ringo just on the cusp of the first round.

Then there is Alabama safety Brian Branch, who is also in first-round position at the moment.

You will not be able to retire off this play, but you can probably consider it a safe W.

Total quarterbacks drafted in first round Over/Under 4.5

We can call this the “Hendon Hooker Prop.”

Having been around the NFL draft game longer than I would care to admit, one of the draft certainties is this: As the draft approaches there will be a push to slide one last QB into the first round. There was late buzz on Christian Hackenberg sneaking into the first round back in 2016. The next year it was DeShone Kizer, who was viewed as a player who could come off the board in the first round, perhaps even early in the first round, but who ultimately slid into the second.

2018 saw five quarterbacks come off the board in the first round, but as the draft approached there was an idea that a sixth could sneak into the first round, with Mason Rudolph out of Oklahoma State. Rudolph ultimately slid to the third round. Then in 2021, another draft that saw five QBs in the first round, Kyle Trask was the QB receiving the late buzz for a push into the top 32 selections.

He eventually came off the board at the end of the second round.

This year it is Hooker, the Tennessee product who put up huge numbers, but has some strikes against his evaluation. He is an older prospect, coming off a significant knee injury, who ran an offense that might not make for an easy transition to the NFL.

Still, that has not stopped the idea that Hooker could find himself in the first round. Mel Kiper Jr. put him inside the first round of his most recent mock draft, and there is other reporting that Hooker’s pre-draft process has “cemented” his first-round stock.

I’ve seen this before, and I’m not buying it this time. Listed at -155 on Draft Kings, the under is the play for me.

Total tight ends drafted in first round Over/Under 2.5

While cornerback is generally considered to be the deepest position in the draft, another strong position group is tight end. Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network has five tight ends listed inside his top-50 prospects, and prior to the NFL Scouting Combine Jeremiah noted that he has 11 prospects at the position graded inside the first three rounds.

However, could we really see three — or more — in the first round? Draft Kings does not think so, with the under here listed at -220, with implied odds of nearly 70% that the under hits.

I’m going with the over instead at +170.

Because the weakness at wide receiver could carry over to the tight end group. Teams looking to add in the passing game with opt for a tight end, instead of a wide receiver. Plus, there are a number of landing spots for tight ends in the first round, including Green Bay at 15, the Chargers at 21, Dallas at 26, Cincinnati at 28, and even Jacksonville at 24. Perhaps I’m wrong, so I would not make this a huge play, but I just have a feeling the league leans into the tight ends this draft cycle.


Who will be drafted earlier, Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer?

Let’s continue with the tight end theme.

The debate over TE1 will end soon, as one of these two prospects will come off the board first in a few weeks. Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid is viewed as the favorite here, listed at -190, and there is good reason for that. He is a true weapon in the passing game, can create after the catch, and might be a perfect schematic fit for the Packers, who could be the team that addressed tight end first.

After all, our most recent mock draft has Kincaid to Green Bay in the first round.

But Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame is the prototypical tight end, who can play in-line, in the wing, in the slot, and even on the boundary. He is the more complete prospect. I like Mayer to come off the board first, our own mock notwithstanding. Mayer is currently listed at +150.

Who will be drafted earlier, Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez?

I’ve not exactly been shy about my love for Gonzalez in this draft, diving into his game at the end of March to make the case for him being CB1.

But if you do not want to take my word, take the word of Peter Schrager from Good Morning Football. Schrager recently shared the “IYKYK List,” highlighting five prospects that, in speaking with general managers, are going to come off the board earlier than expected.

Gonzalez was on that list:

The buzz seems to be around Witherspoon right now, and he is listed as the favorite at -180, but Gonzalez is my play here at +135.

(Also, you’ll note that Emmanuel Forbes is on this list, which is another data point for the Over/Under on first-round defensive backs).

LSU’s BJ Ojulari is not among the elite, but he’s a first-round EDGE prospect with upside

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  1. Well 😇😇😇

  2. The post has given me a lot to think about …

  3. Wow ❗️❗️❗️

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